Blog
Making the Fed Great Again
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 5/18/2026 To say the least, since its inception in 1913, the Federal Reserve has had its ups and downs. One thing most people don’t know is that prior to the...
Read MoreContinuing Care Retirement Communities: What They Cost, How They Work, and When to Start Preparing
Why Is This Conversation So Important Right Now? The U.S. is in the middle of a sustained demographic shift. More than 61 million adults are aged 65 and older as of 2025, and that number is projected to reach approximately 82 million...
Read MoreChairman in Name Only
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 5/4/2026 Kevin Warsh wants to make some big shifts in monetary policy at the Fed. Unfortunately, unless and until soon-to-be former Chairman Jerome Powell steps...
Read MoreWhen Should I Start Taking Social Security: 5 Factors to Consider
Social Security decisions are often framed as a single question: “When should I start drawing benefits?” That question matters, but it can also be limiting. The better question is: how does Social Security fit into my overall...
Read MoreRate Cuts on Backburner
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 4/13/2026If you expect Kevin Warsh to quickly take the helm at the Fed and start cutting rates, you need to adjust your expectations.For one thing, the timing...
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Teaching Teens and Young Adults Financial Literacy Through Real-Life Decision Making
If you are a parent of a teen or young adult, how do you teach them to make confident money decisions before the stakes are high? Teaching teens and young adults about money is less about formal instruction and more about repeated...
Read MoreStocks See Troubles Brewing
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 3/30/2026The US economy grew a pedestrian 2.0% last year and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is currently projecting real GDP growth at a 2.0% annual rate in the...
Read MoreHelping Adult Children Buy a Home: How to Gift a Down Payment The Smart Way
Key TakeawaysHere are some questions this blog aims to answer:How can parents or grandparents help with a down payment for adult children?What are ways to gift a down payment, and how do the annual gift tax exclusion and lifetime...
Read MoreWar, Oil, and Recession
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 3/16/2026In the aftermath of the first Internet stock-market bubble of the late 1990s the economy went into a relatively shallow recession starting in 2001....
Read MoreTepid Growth, But Growth
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 3/9/2026About a month ago the financial markets were surprised by a January jobs report that was stronger than expected. The consensus was for a gain of 68,000...
Read MoreThe Great Reset
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 3/2/2026As we all know, the US and Israeli militaries attacked Iran. The old Ayatollah and his successor are dead, along with much of the rest of Iran’s...
Read MoreThree Numbers Every Woman Should Know
Key TakeawaysHow much wealth are women on track to control in the next decade, and why does that matter?What does the life expectancy gap between women and men mean for how long money needs to last?How common is it for women to be...
Read MoreTax Prep vs. Tax Strategy: The Difference Matters More Than You Think
Key TakeawaysTreat tax strategy as a continuous process, not a once-a-year filing exercise.Coordinate with financial and tax professionals throughout the year to identify opportunities for efficiency.Review contribution limits,...
Read MoreHigher Tariffs Not Dead
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 2/23/2026The Trump Tariffs are dead, long live the Trump Tariffs!As we expected, the Supreme Court struck down most of the new tariffs President Trump had...
Read MoreUnderstanding the Emotions Behind Financial Decisions
Key TakeawaysEmotions and biases might influence financial choices more often than most people realize.Behavioral patterns, such as loss aversion, familiarity bias, and herd mentality, can impact long-term results.Recognizing emotional...
Read MoreWill Kevin Warsh Fix the Fed?
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 2/2/2026President Trump finally made his pick for Fed Chair and it is Kevin Warsh. A Wall Street Journal editorial said Warsh has been “the leading voice in...
Read MoreAI and the New Face of Fraud: How to Protect Your Identity and Finances in 2026
Artificial intelligence (AI) may be the most revolutionary technology of our time, with industries scrambling to embrace its possibilities. AI’s early influence seems similar to the positive disruptions brought about by past...
Read MoreThe Fed Chose Politics
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 1/20/2026After more than a decade of analyzing, writing, speaking, warning, and complaining about the Federal Reserve’s use of an “Abundant Reserve” monetary...
Read MorePeering Through the Data Fog
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 1/12/2026We have never seen economic data as murky as they are today. The jobs data are very soft, and yet the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model (which slowly...
Read More2025 in Review and What You Should Know
As we begin a new year and consider the opportunities ahead, reflecting on the past year helps put today’s financial landscape into perspective and informs the strategies that can move us closer to our goals.2025 was a year marked by...
Read MoreIs Productivity Picking Up?
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 12/29/2025When it comes to interpreting the economy we put a premium on sobriety. One good piece of economic data doesn’t mean a boom, nor does one bad report...
Read MoreGreedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 12/22/2025The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph...
Read MoreGoal Setting That Sticks: Simple Ways to Turn January Motivation into Lasting Wins
Key Takeaways and Suggestions for Successful Goal Setting Use SMART Goals for Clarity and FocusSet goals that are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. This proven method helps break big ambitions into manageable...
Read MoreNo More Flying Blind!
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 12/15/2025 We’re finally breaking out of the clouds! Economists have mostly been flying blind because of the government shutdown, but this week the data really...
Read MoreThe Future of the Fed
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 12/8/2025 There are two very important meetings about monetary policy this week but, so far, most of the public only knows about one of them. On Wednesday the...
Read MoreYear-End Giving Strategies: Tax-Smart and Impactful
Key Takeaways A third of annual donations: About one-third of all charitable contributions are made in December. Donating before December 31 may offer tax advantages. New rules starting in 2026 (via the OBBB Act) may affect deductions...
Read MoreInflation Does Not Fix Anything, Especially Debt
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 12/1/2025 In the ten years prior to the onset of COVID, the consumer prices index rose at an average annual rate of 1.7%. Since the onset of COVID the overall...
Read MoreDemand-Side Trickle-Down
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 11/17/2025 Back in 1980, a central feature of President Reagan’s campaign was a thirty percent across-the-board cut in income tax rates. Once elected, he...
Read MoreThe True Costs of Caring for Aging Parents
Key Takeaways Caring for aging parents is a growing reality for many Americans. The number of family caregivers in the U.S. has jumped to 63 million, a 45 percent increase over the past decade, making 1 in every 4 Americans a...
Read MoreA Very Political Week
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 11/10/2025 In a better world, politics would not be important to investors. The government would have little influence over the economy, public policies would...
Read MoreMoney Talks: How to Use Holiday Gatherings to Start Family Financial Conversations
Key Takeaways Year-end holidays may be a good time to initiate a discussion about financial matters that may impact your family. If you have adult children, you may want to discuss your financial situation, estate strategy, and legal...
Read MoreCapitalism vs Socialism
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 11/3/2025 History is absolutely clear – Capitalism is the best system ever developed (actually evolved by human experiment) to boost living standards. At the...
Read MoreA Shutdown Government Delivers One CPI Report
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 10/27/2025 A small part of the federal government took a short break from being shut to make sure the Labor Department could deliver the September Consumer...
Read MoreFlying Blind
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 10/20/2025 As we recently argued, investors don’t need to worry about the federal government shutdown showdown causing a recession. Before the current shutdown,...
Read MoreUnderneath the Noise, Budget Deficit Progress!
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 10/13/2025 Over the past two and one-half decades the federal government has buried taxpayers under a mountain of debt, now approaching $38 trillion. During...
Read MoreHistory Rhymes – Don't Forget It
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 10/6/2025 No one, that we know of, is saying Artificial Intelligence (AI) isn’t an amazing new technology that will have an important impact on life, investing,...
Read MoreThe Shutdown Showdown
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 9/29/2025 Economic data are all over the place. GDP keeps growing in spite of signs of weakness in the labor market. Tariff policy is volatile, immigration has...
Read MoreSo, Maybe That Drop In M2 Really Did Matter
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 9/15/2025 If a tree fell in the woods, but the data said it didn’t, does it really mean anything? In spite of what appeared to be relatively good data, many...
Read MoreImmigration, Tariffs, and AI, Oh My!
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 9/8/2025 Over the past twenty years, in spite of incredible new technologies, US real GDP growth has averaged just 2.0% at an annual rate. By contrast, in the...
Read MoreDo Valuations Matter?
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 9/2/2025 For the past two years, we have been warning that the stock market is overvalued. While our capitalized profits model is simple, it is more complex...
Read MoreFed Still Evading Key Issues
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 8/25/2025 Last Friday, Jerome Powell gave the Fed Chief’s annual speech at the Kansas City Fed’s 2025 meeting in Jackson Hole, WY. He said the balance of...
Read MoreDepartures From Free-Markets Aren't New
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 8/18/2025 Recently, due to deals President Trump is making, some are saying the United States has embarked on a version of Chinese-style “state capitalism” –...
Read MoreAs the Fed Turns
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 8/11/2025 At the last meeting two weeks ago, Chairman Jerome Powell got the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates, but not without a struggle. Two Fed...
Read MoreEverything is Political...Be Careful
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 8/4/2025 It certainly seems hyper-politicization has come to every piece of economic data. Last week’s data are poster children for this, and the overbroad...
Read MoreQ2 Rebound is No Big Deal
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 7/28/2025 President Trump announced higher tariffs were on the way almost as soon as he took office. As a result, businesses focused on buying foreign goods in...
Read MoreFed Independence is a Myth
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 7/21/2025 Every year the Per Jacobsson Foundation hosts and publishes a lecture on Monetary Policy. Back in 1979, Arthur Burns delivered the annual lecture in...
Read MoreNot So Hot
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 7/7/2025 In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets...
Read MoreAmerica's 3.5-Second Miracle
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 6/30/2025 In 1852, Karl Marx said "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by...
Read MoreMirror-Image Quarters and Iran
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 6/23/2025 Looking back on it, the first quarter of the year was a complete anomaly. Real GDP declined at a 0.2% annual rate, and the left side of the political...
Read MoreDueling Economies
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 6/16/2025 The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes....
Read MoreThoughts on Inflation
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 6/9/2025 Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued...
Read MoreGDP Up, Inflation Down
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 6/2/2025 Conventional wisdom was that the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration would cause higher inflation and slower growth – stagflation as far as the...
Read MoreDebt Downgrade Drama and the Budget
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 5/27/2025 Moody’s finally downgraded US government debt on May 16th to Aa1, its second highest rating. With the US $36 trillion (and rising) in debt, it’s not...
Read MoreIs The Dollar Really Dying?
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 5/12/2025 Back on January 10, 2025, it cost $1.024 to buy one Euro. Last Friday, the $/Euro exchange rate was $1.125 – a drop in the value of the dollar of...
Read MoreNo Recession Yet, But Risks Remain
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 5/5/2025 Noise about tariffs, business uncertainty, a constitutional fight, and a drop in stock prices had already created fear of a recession. When real GDP...
Read MoreDon't Watch "Cash on the Sidelines"
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 4/28/2025 As we have written…The Era of Easy Everything is ending. Part of this involves bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. We...
Read MoreTime to Cut Rates
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 4/14/2025 Quantitative Easing was different during COVID than during the Financial Panic of 2008. During COVID, M2 growth soared, while it was held back during...
Read MoreTariffs, the Economy, and Stocks
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 4/7/2025 The Federal Reserve started raising short-term interest rates three years ago and the M2 measure of the money supply – what Milton Friedman said to...
Read MoreInflation, the Fed, and the Markets
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 3/31/2025 During the ten years prior to COVID, PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, averaged about 1.5% per year. Jerome Powell said it was too low and...
Read MoreSymptoms or Causes
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 3/24/2025 In spite of severe polarization on so many issues, there is at least one thing that Americans agree on across the entire political spectrum, left,...
Read MoreIt's Not All About Tariffs
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 3/10/2025 It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different...
Read MoreThe Constitution at Work
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 2/18/2025 The Framers of the Constitution designed our government to be small. Not so small and weak as the one under the Articles of Confederation, which the...
Read MoreData Games
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 2/10/2025 The federal government gets a great deal of grief when it issues economic reports and it’s not hard to see why. The last several years include lots of...
Read MoreInflation, Tariffs, and the Fed
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 2/3/2025 The Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it’s not about to cut short-term interest rates again anytime soon, which is good news if you’d...
Read MoreThe 60/40 Model and The Elephant in the Room
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 1/21/2025 As economists and financial market forecasters, we are constantly amazed at how so many people analyze, forecast, research, and discuss important...
Read MoreThe Housing Outlook: 2025
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief EconomistDate: 1/13/2025 If you’re going to remember one important fact about the housing market, it’s that with the brief exception of COVID, the US has consistently built...
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